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AP Explains: What's next after Turkey seizes Syria's Afrin

Turkey's seizure of the town of Afrin in northern Syria is a significant military achievement for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that gives him control over a large chunk of Syrian territory but also entrenches his troops as an occupying force in a crowded terrain packed with adversaries.

Turkey's seizure of the town of Afrin in northern Syria is a significant military achievement for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that gives him control over a large chunk of Syrian territory but also entrenches his troops as an occupying force in a crowded terrain packed with adversaries.

Ignoring criticism by the United States and Europe of his eight-week military offensive, Turkish forces and allied Syrian militiamen swept into Afrin on Sunday, marching victoriously into the town's center and shooting in the air in celebration.

And it doesn't stop there, Erdogan says.

Emboldened, he vowed on Monday to expand military operations into other Kurdish-held areas in Syria and even into neighboring Iraq — a move that would potentially put his troops in direct confrontation with U.S. troops stationed nearby.

The main Kurdish militia, acknowledging defeat in Afrin, has vowed to turn to guerrilla warfare to confront Turkish troops.

Here's a look at Turkey's seizure of Afrin, and what lies ahead:

___

WHAT DOES ERDOGAN REALLY WANT?

At this point, that question is anyone's guess. Turkey has long backed rebels fighting to oust President Bashar Assad from power, opening its borders to foreign fighters to join the war in Syria.

But the war has greatly empowered Erdogan's No. 1 enemy, the Kurds, whose rag-tag fighters Turkey considers to be "terrorists" and an extension of its own Kurdish insurgency. In the chaos of war, the Kurdish fighters have partnered with the United States to fight the Islamic State group and carved out a huge autonomous region along the border with Turkey, amounting to a quarter of Syria's entire territory.

That has led Ankara to recalibrate its focus toward halting Kurdish expansionism.

Erdogan, who first launched military operations in Syria in 2016, has repeatedly said Turkey will not allow a "terror corridor" along its border and has vowed to push eastward in Syria after Afrin, to prevent the Kurdish militia from linking up territories it controls in eastern and western Syria. Turkey is home to some 3 million Syrian refugees, and Turkey has also said Afrin could be a place where those refugees would return to.

Afrin, a separate Kurkish-run canton cut off from the rest of Kurdish-held territory by a Turkish-held enclave, was an easy target.

But by pushing eastward as he is threatening to do, Erdogan risks overplaying his hand and getting bogged down in a fight bigger than Turkey can handle.

___

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE KURDS?

It's a huge setback. Until a few months ago, Syria's long-marginalized Kurds were described as the biggest winners in Syria's civil war. They bragged of being the main ground force that ousted the Islamic State group out of its strongholds in Syria, including Raqqa, the extremist group's de facto capital.

But the Kurds' dream of self-rule is looking increasingly fragile. They have been historically used and cast aside, and may once again become the losers in the big powers' play over influence in Syria.

The Turkish offensive on Afrin, which began Jan. 20, has put the U.S. in a tough spot, juggling between the interests of the Kurds, its only ally in war-torn Syria, and its relations with Turkey, a key NATO ally. It did not move a finger to help the Kurds fight for Afrin.

The Kurds vowed to defend the enclave until the end, describing it as an existential fight to preserve their territory. They relocated hundreds of fighters from front lines with the Islamic State group to bolster the defense of Afrin.

In the end, they were no match for Turkey's NATO army's overwhelming firepower.

The Kurds lost more than 800 fighters in the 58 days of fighting for Afrin. An estimated 500 civilians were killed, and tens of thousands of Afrin residents streamed out of the town before the Turkish troops entered.

The Kurdish fighters also withdrew, ostensibly, to spare the remaining civilians.

___

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

A lot hinges on whether Erdogan goes ahead with his threat to expand military operations eastward, toward the town of Manbij and other areas east of the Euphrates River controlled by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces, and where U.S. bases are also housed.

While the U.S. was able to distance itself from the fighting in Afrin, it can't sit by silently if Turkey expands the fight to Manbij. Kurdish guerrilla-type attacks against Turkey and its Syrian allies could also jeopardize the U.S.-led mission to stabilize areas that have been captured from IS.

President Bashar Assad's response is also an open question. His forces are now preoccupied with recapturing eastern Ghouta, near Damascus, and other areas deemed more essential. But he has condemned Turkish "occupation" of parts of northern Syria and vowed to eventually recapture the region.

Another major question is whether the takeover would lead to ethnic cleansing of the Kurdish majority there. Images that emerged Sunday following Afrin's takeover bode ill for the future of the ethnically-mixed region. Afrin residents reported widespread looting and pillaging soon after Turkish troops and allied Syrian fighters marched into the town center Sunday.

Turkey, along with its Syrian allies, already controls large chunks of territory east of Afrin. But its presence there was more accepted than in Afrin because it chased IS militants from those areas.

Some 200,000 people fled Afrin over the past few days, and whether they will be permitted to return remains an open question.

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    15 Posted by Michael David
  • Some women granted this request no big deal. Then he demanded nude pictures. He had a foot fetish. "Is Brexit bad rs gold PR for brand Cambridge?" was the first question. 52% said the city would find new opportunities out there and that the impact would be minimal, while 42% voted the other way, and 6% thought "Brand Cambridge" needed an overhaul anyway. Most worrying was the possibility that we might soon become known as "Brand Cambridge", rather like "Team GB".. A professional Game website is Recommended to you, Rsorder is a Trusted Runescape gold Site 2018 to Buy All RS products with 24/7 online. It owns 10 years of experience in the gaming market and Millons of players from Europe, Asia, South America and so on.Now The new version of Mobile is live, you can buy All RS products with mobile conveniently and quickly! 5% more gold code:RSYK5 for all rs products & 10% Off code:OSRSA10 for all osrs accounts anytime! If i dont get any input in a few days ill do it myself. Yes, we call the article "Armour" and some of these items are not exactly armour. However, they are required to be worn for certain quests, and they replace armour items when they are worn, which definitely affects the attack and defence bonuses that are in effect for the player during the quest. As RuneHQ and Rune Tips are the most popular (per Alexa ranking), and they are too close too each other to make a call as to which is most popular, they have been added but no more links may be added. Please see the talk page before changing this link. If you need more information on RuneScape, a Google search should suffice." Problems with that: A) "this" is singular, just thought I had to point that out , B)Fan site is singular, and unlike a), you can't change it as the rule says one. That was the situation before the one fansite rule, where this article was fast approaching the spam event horizon. Secondly, i'm sure that the number of fansite links has been brought up and criticised in past PR/GA reviews. CaptainVindaloo t c e 23:26, 6 March 2007 (UTC). As the game goes on, as in most games of its type, better weapons are accumulated. Late in the game the player wields weapons of enormous size, even though most weapons maintain their usefulness to the end. Runes are strewen around the game world. Yea. It's hard to judge how deep this demand might be, but I wonder if it would be worth hiring TSMC to crank out a few wafers. You'd think they could sell a few thousand for $125 or so. Why do we love it?For many people of a certain age, Runescape was their first MMO. Originally played in your browser (like in Edge, Chrome, or Firefox), it has expanded to its own client and program, upgrading its graphics and mechanics significantly. Of all the MMOs out there, Runescape is arguably the best for beginners: a free to play variant lets you experience Happy Thanksgiving Day&Black Friday!Up to 60% off 2000M Runescape Gold&400M RS 2007 Gold on RSorder for you to Spend Them Happily Nov.19!More http://www.rsorder.com/rs-gold Part II:RS3 Gold&07 RS Gold with Up to $15 Cash Coupons for you Nov.15-Nov.23! Long-Term Discount Code&Activity:7% off code SYTHE to buy 07 RS Gold Anytime&Win Free OSRS Gold &RS3 Gold from RSorder Mimic Show Via Twitter Every Monday at 3:00 am GMT in November!
    Nov 13, 2018 15
  • 13 Nov 2018
    PC gamers will get an added entertainment of Rocket League Items their very own,as they are accepting the ample requested LAN support.This will will let you events and bounded tournaments.That's no longer all either,as Psyonix will assist you to actualize our personal tournaments in-game afterwards this year.This affection might be handy as a beta on PC afterwards this 12 months,with the abounding absolution advancing to all platforms in 2018. That's not the abandoned a laugh aspect they're alive on either.They will aswell be testing a new affair association that has been congenital anon into the sport.This will let us affair up anon through PsyNet as opposed to the affair structures currently acclimated through Steam,Xbox Live,and the PlayStation Network.However,it will abandoned be activated on Steam,as it's less difficult to perform short adjustments and get acknowledgment there. The new association will robotically accompany your ambitious along with your accompany annual advice and acquiesce you to actualize a affair via PsyNet.You'll nevertheless use the Actualize Party'button as you typically could,but instead of seeing a Affair attraction in Steam,you may see new in-recreation notifications alerting you to a Affair invite. What's introduced soaking up approximately that is that we are instructed it's the aboriginal footfall in "allowing the achievability of acknowledging pass-platform events at a afterwards date".We're advised that there could be brought advice approximately this at a afterwards date. The autumn amend is about to barrage aloft all systems on September 28,however you may get a aftertaste of it within the bivouac underneath. Rocket League has just acclaimed its -year anniversary,and what two years it has been for developer Psyonix.Affairs over 10 actor copies aloft all systems and a About-face version due out afterwards this yr,we attending ashamed at the records of Rocket League and what's fabricated it one of the plenty of customary novice of this animate generation. Buy FIFA Coins, Rocket League Trading, Madden Coins, RS Gold Online Store : https://www.lolga.com
    35 Posted by lolga vip
  • PC gamers will get an added entertainment of Rocket League Items their very own,as they are accepting the ample requested LAN support.This will will let you events and bounded tournaments.That's no longer all either,as Psyonix will assist you to actualize our personal tournaments in-game afterwards this year.This affection might be handy as a beta on PC afterwards this 12 months,with the abounding absolution advancing to all platforms in 2018. That's not the abandoned a laugh aspect they're alive on either.They will aswell be testing a new affair association that has been congenital anon into the sport.This will let us affair up anon through PsyNet as opposed to the affair structures currently acclimated through Steam,Xbox Live,and the PlayStation Network.However,it will abandoned be activated on Steam,as it's less difficult to perform short adjustments and get acknowledgment there. The new association will robotically accompany your ambitious along with your accompany annual advice and acquiesce you to actualize a affair via PsyNet.You'll nevertheless use the Actualize Party'button as you typically could,but instead of seeing a Affair attraction in Steam,you may see new in-recreation notifications alerting you to a Affair invite. What's introduced soaking up approximately that is that we are instructed it's the aboriginal footfall in "allowing the achievability of acknowledging pass-platform events at a afterwards date".We're advised that there could be brought advice approximately this at a afterwards date. The autumn amend is about to barrage aloft all systems on September 28,however you may get a aftertaste of it within the bivouac underneath. Rocket League has just acclaimed its -year anniversary,and what two years it has been for developer Psyonix.Affairs over 10 actor copies aloft all systems and a About-face version due out afterwards this yr,we attending ashamed at the records of Rocket League and what's fabricated it one of the plenty of customary novice of this animate generation. Buy FIFA Coins, Rocket League Trading, Madden Coins, RS Gold Online Store : https://www.lolga.com
    Nov 13, 2018 35

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